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PROPORTIONALITY - LEVEL 2 MEASURES
CEIOPS-CP-45/09, 2 July 2009, Consultation Paper No. 45
Draft CEIOPS’ Advice for Level 2 Implementing Measures on Solvency II: Technical Provisions – Article 85 h, Simplified methods and techniques to calculate technical provisions
 
3.2 Simplified methods

3.107 This sub-section considers the use of simplified methods for the valuation of technical provisions in the context of a proportionality assessment as described in the previous sub-section.

3.108 At first, it generally considers the role of simplified methods in the valuation framework, in particular with regard to whether it would be appropriate to include a specification of simplified methods on Level 2.
 
It then analysis the availability and applicability of simplified methods for two specific components of the valuation where the use of simplified methods is especially relevant.

3.2.1 Specification of simplified methods on Level 2
3.109 Article 85(h) of the Level 1 text states that:

“The Commission shall adopt implementing measures laying down […] where necessary, simplified methods and techniques to calculate technical provisions, in order to ensure the actuarial and statistical methodologies referred to in point (a) and (d) are proportionate to the nature, scale and complexity of the risks supported by insurance and reinsurance undertakings including captive insurance and reinsurance undertakings.… ”

3.110 It is therefore necessary to consider:

• The circumstances under which simplified methods would need to be specified under Level 2; and

• For which specific valuation components these circumstances would apply.

Circumstances which would necessitate specification of simplified methods

3.111 As has been previously mentioned, Solvency II envisages a principles based approach to the valuation of technical provisions.
 
This means that the regulatory requirements relating to the valuation process would generally not prescribe any specific approaches to carrying out the valuation.

3.112 Instead, in carrying out the valuation according to the principles-based requirements set out in the Level 1 text the (re)insurance undertaking should be flexible to reflect the specificities of its business and risk profile, taking into account the principle of proportionality.

3.113 To support this, supervisory guidelines on Level 3 could be developed.
 
It is also expected that national and international associations of the actuarial profession will issue guidelines on technical issues, including the valuation of technical provisions.

3.114 In light of this, it may be argued that it would be excessive to include any detail on specific simplified methodologies for the valuation of technical provisions on Level 2.
 
There are a number of further aspects which would support this view:

• It would generally
not be possible to define any “default” or reference method for the valuation of technical provisions; instead, a continuum of methods would typically be available to the undertaking, differing in their degree of complexity and sophistication.
 
Hence any choice of simplified methods would necessarily be incomplete and to some extent arbitrary;

Actuarial methodologies and techniques for the valuation of technical provisions are subject of continuous scientific research and development, so that it is likely that a description of specific simplified techniques and their application criteria would need to be regularly reviewed and updated.
 
The legal framework provided by Level 2 may not be sufficiently flexible to achieve this aim;

• Inclusion of simplified valuation techniques in Level 2 may be contradictory to the aim of incentivising (re)insurance undertakings towards using more sophisticated techniques, and may lead to an over-reliance on simple techniques which may not be fully appropriate in all circumstances;

The principle of proportionality provides an adequate framework to ensure that undertaking s apply appropriate methodologies for the valuation of technical provisions, including the use of simplified techniques.
 
The expectations and requirements on the undertaking’s proportionality assessment are principles-based rather than rules based and would not need to be supplemented by providing simplified methods on Level 2.

• CEIOPS supports the establishment of European technical standards to be to be applied by the actuarial function in exercising its tasks.

As part of these tasks, the actuarial function has to coordinate the calculation of technical provisions and to ensure the appropriateness of the methodologies and underlying models used therein.
 
Therefore, such European technical standards are expected to provide comprehensive support to undertakings for calculating their technical provisions, and a high level of convergence in the guidelines to be used.

3.115 On the other hand, not including to some extent a specification of simplified valuation techniques on Level 2 may erode the intention of the Level 1 text to achieve an increased harmonisation of quantitative and qualitative supervisory methods, including technical provisions.

3.116 In this regard, recital 30 of the Level 1 text states that
 
(30) […] The principles and actuarial and statistical methodologies underlying the calculation of those technical provisions should be harmonised throughout the Community in order to achieve better comparability and transparency.

3.117 In the same vein, recitals 11 and 33 stipulate that

(11) […] Harmonisation should be increased by providing specific rules for the valuation of assets and liabilities, including technical provisions.

(33) […] The use of effective and harmonised actuarial methodologies should be required.

3.118 A need to achieve harmonisation would be particularly relevant in areas where the use of simplified methods in the valuation is widespread, and where a common understanding of an actuarial “best practice” is still evolving.

3.119 Not including any detail on specific simplified valuation methods in Level 2 may also raise concerns with respect to the needs of small and medium sized (re)insurance undertakings.
 
Whereas it could be argued that these needs are sufficiently addressed in a proper application of the principle of
proportionality,
an inclusion of specific simplified valuation methods in Level 2 may be helpful for small and medium-sized undertakings in
 
• Making available valuation techniques which are tailored to the specificities of their business; and

Providing legal certainty on the appropriateness of such techniques under the Solvency II framework.

3.120 This consideration is also reflected in recital 34 of the Level 1 text which states that

“In order to reflect the specific situation of small and medium sized undertakings, simplified approaches to the calculation of technical provisions should be provided for.”

3.121 In light of the considerations above, an inclusion of specific simplified valuation methodologies in Level 2 should only be foreseen for components of the valuation where:

The use of simplified methods is expected to be widespread, and a common understanding of an actuarial “best practice” is still evolving; or

• There is a particular need for small and medium-sized undertaking s for such an inclusion.

3.122 Where such simplified methods would be specified on Level 2, they should be available for all undertakings and be subject to appropriate application criteria.
 
Such criteria should

• Specify the circumstances and conditions under which they are intended to be used (in terms of the risk profile of the portfolio to be valued); and

• Have due regard to the model error inherent in an application of the method.


Components of the valuation where such circumstances would apply

3.123 Considering the conditions mentioned in para. 3.121, we note that in the QIS4 exercise a number of simplifications and proxies were included in the specifications, which covered the valuation of the best estimate technical provisions, including the valuation of reinsurance recoverables, and also the calculation of the risk margin.

3.124 In QIS4, a widespread use of simplified methods for the valuation of technical provisions was observed for the valuation of reinsurance recoverables and the risk margin.

3.125 It is expected that in these areas there is also a need for small and medium-sized undertakings to have simplified methods available.
 
Hence these valuation components are analysed in more detail, below.

3.2.2 Thresholds determining the allowance of simplified methods

3.126 This sub-section discusses the extent to which it would be appropriate to introduce external thresholds guiding the use of simplified methods for the valuation of technical provisions.
 
The idea of such thresholds would be to provide a cut-off point below which it would be regarded as justifiable to use specific (simplified) valuation techniques (or a class of such techniques).

3.127 Such external thresholds may be specified:

• In implementing measures on Level 2;

• As part of supervisory guidance on Level 3; or

• As part of supplementary technical guidance or standards.

3.128 We note that
where external thresholds are introduced in Level 2, these would be legally binding, which would not be the case for the other levels.

This may lead to different conclusions on the feasibility and appropriateness of an introduction of thresholds on different levels.
 
In the following, the analysis is focused on a potential inclusion of thresholds in Level 2 implementing measures.

Types of thresholds to be considered

3.129 Where external thresholds are considered in the context of a valuation of technical provisions, these would typically apply to either
 
• the scale of the underlying risks; or

• the degree of model error inherent in valuation methods.

3.130 Usually, they would be defined as
materiality thresholds, i.e. where they are not exceeded it would be considered that the scale of the risk (or, respectively, the degree of model error in the calculation) is immaterial, so that an application of certain simplified valuation techniques would seem appropriate.

3.131 It is also useful to distinguish between

• Thresholds which are proposed to apply to individual valuation techniques; and

• Thresholds which apply more broadly to all methods or to a specific class of methods.

3.132 The following figure illustrates these different types of thresholds:
 
 
 
3.133 Most often a threshold would be expressed quantitatively, either in relative or in absolute terms.
 
However, it would also be possible to specify a threshold in qualitative terms.

3.134 An example of a quantitative “Type 1” threshold (expressed in relative as well as absolute terms) is given by the (indicative) materiality threshold specified by CEIOPS for the use of simplified methods for the valuation of technical provisions in QIS4.
 
The intention of this threshold was to indicate when the liability that is valued would not be material in absolute terms or relative to the overall size of the total best estimate.
 
It was

• To be applied broadly to the set of all simplified methods; and

• Based on simple volume measures (size of the best estimate of technical provisions) related to the scale of the underlying risks.

 
3.135 An example of a (qualitative) “Type 2” threshold is given by Step 2 of the proportionality assessment process outlined in section 3.1.
 
Here, it was set out that a valuation technique (simplified or not) would be considered proportionate if it could be expected that the degree of model error inherent in an application of the method would not be material.
 
In this context, “materiality” was expressed in qualitative terms, considering the degree to which the decision-making or judgment of the intended user of the information could be influenced.
 
This establishes a general materiality threshold which

• Applies to all valuation methods which the (re)insurance undertaking may consider for calculating its technical provisions; and
 
• Is directly related to the degree of model error inherent in the application of the method.

3.136 Whereas “Type 1” and “Type 2” thresholds would apply broadly to all methods or to a specific class of methods, “Type 3” and “Type 4” thresholds would be specific for individual simplified methods.
 
This means that, where specific simplified methods would be introduced on Level 2, this could be supplemented by including specific “Type 3” or “Type 4” thresholds in their application criteria with the intention to limit or restrict the use of the method depending on the scale of the risk (in case of “Type 3” thresholds) or on the degree of model error expected from an
application of the method (in case of “Type 4” methods).

3.137 To illustrate this by way of an example, consider the “Discounting Proxy” technique tested in QIS4, which provided a means to discount technical provisions by applying a pre-specified discounting factor.
 
Consider further that such a technique was specified on Level 2, with some general application criteria setting out certain minimum conditions on the risk profile of the portfolio to which the method could be applied.
 
In this context, it may be decided to introduce a threshold specific to the “Discounting Proxy” technique which would e.g. specify that the technique may only be used to value up to 50% of the best estimate of the portfolio, where the percentage of “50%” would have been derived by assessing the degree of model error expected from an application of the techniques.

3.138 In the following, the appropriateness of introducing thresholds – in relation to the different types as described above – is considered further.
 
Thresholds relating to the scale of the risks

3.139 As was mentioned above, it may be contemplated to implement external thresholds on basis of an assessment of the scale of risks, so that an (re)insurance undertaking would be allowed to use simplified methods in case the threshold is not exceeded.
 
However, such an approach could lead to a number of problems:

• Relying on a threshold based on the scale of risks may not be sufficient.
It is important to also consider the nature and complexity of the risks to which an undertaking is exposed;

• Ultimately,
it is not the scale of risk which is the deciding factor in a proportionality assessment, but whether the chosen method is proportionate to the risks and whether the degree of model error in the calculation is material.
 
This aspect may not be sufficiently addressed in this type of threshold.

3.140 Moreover, where thresholds based on the scale of the risk are introduced, they would often rely on simple volume measures (such as the amount of premiums or technical provisions) related to the size of the undertaking.

This may be problematic since:

• Size in itself may not be an adequate approximation to the risk to which an undertaking is exposed. In general, neither the premiums nor the technical provisions can be considered as a sufficient benchmark to specify a threshold below which the undertaking would no longer be vulnerable to the risk.

• Undertakings within the scope of the Solvency II Level 1 text should not be classified differently on the basis of size.
 
Indeed, policyholders should not expect a lower degree of protection simply because their cover is provided by a smaller undertaking.

3.141 Therefore, it would not seem appropriate to introduce thresholds based on the scale of the risks (e.g. with respect to the size of the undertaking or the size of the risks) to determine the allowance for a simplified approach for the calculation of technical provisions within implementing measures on Level 2.

Thresholds relating to the degree of model error

3.142 When considering model error in context of Step 2 of the proportionality assessment process, it was observed that in practice an assessment of model error may be rather demanding on undertakings, leading to additional implementation costs.

3.143 In view of this, it could be contemplated to quantify the model error of simplified valuation methods centrally (by CEIOPS) before Solvency II is introduced.
 
Following such an approach, specific thresholds (externally specified on Level 2 or 3) for the use of individual simplified valuation methods could be set which would reflect the assessed degree of model error.
 
As long as these thresholds would not be exceeded, it would be considered that the degree of model error resulting from an application of the method would not be material, and hence it would not be necessary for the undertaking to calculate or quantify model errors.

3.144 However, in view of the ultimate aim of Solvency II to improve risk assessment and risk management processes across (re)insurance undertakings, it is believed that a holistic approach – which integrates an assessment of model error into the valuation process as part of actuarial best practice - would be more suitable than an approach which stresses a need to avoid an assessment and potential quantification of model error.

3.145 Moreover, it seems likely that an approach to introduce thresholds as described would be difficult to implement in practice:

The degree of model error incurred by an application of a method does not only depend on the method, but rather is determined by the degree to which the method is able to capture the undertaking’s individual risk profile.
 
However, since the same threshold would need to be specified for all undertakings, the assessment of the model error
of the valuation method to which the threshold is attached would need to make some generalising assumptions on the characteristics of the risk profiles of the undertakings which would use the threshold.
 
It seems likely that this would make the calibration of the calculation of such thresholds very demanding.
 
It may also lead to a situation where for some undertakings the (central) assessment of the model error implicit in the determination of the threshold would not appropriately reflect the actual model risk which the undertaking incurs in applying the method.;

• It would seem difficult to integrate the calculation of such thresholds into the actuarial reserving process in a reasonable way; and

• Under this approach, thresholds would be established for a selection of simplified methods which would be externally specified (on Level 2 or Level 3).
 
However, these methods would only represent part of the spectrum of (simplified) methods which would be available for the
undertaking. For these other (possibly similar) methods, the thresholds would not apply, and the undertaking would assess their
appropriateness on basis of the proportionality assessment process outlined in section 3.1.
 
This may create inconsistencies, where for similar methods this process would lead to a different assessment of the degree of the model error than is indicted by an application of the threshold.

3.146 Considering this, where external thresholds applicable to specific (simplified) valuation methods and relating to the degree of model error are introduced, care should be taken to ensure that:

• This is consistent with the principles-based proportionality assessment process outlined in section 3.1 of this paper;

• In implementing the threshold it can be ensured that the assessment of model error implicit in the calibration of the threshold adequately reflects the actual degree of model error incurred when the method is applied by individual undertakings;

• This should not lead to the impression that it would no longer be necessary for the undertaking to undertake an own assessment of the appropriateness of the method, including an assessment of the degree of model error.

3.147 Overall, the above discussion has shown that the usual interpretation of thresholds as providing a cut-off point below which it would be regarded as justifiable to use specific (simplified) valuation techniques (or a class of such techniques) may be problematic.
 
Rather than as a criterion for the allowance for specific simplified techniques it may therefore be more appropriate to use thresholds as a criterion for their rejection.
 
This means that, where the threshold is exceeded it would be considered that the degree of model error in the calculation is material, so that an use of the simplified method would not seem appropriate.
 
However, where the threshold is not exceeded the undertaking would need to conduct further analysis and assessment before it can be decided whether an application of the simplified method would be proportionate in regard to its risk profile.
 

PROPORTIONALITY - LEVEL 2 MEASURES
CEIOPS-CP-45/09, 2 July 2009, Consultation Paper No. 45
 
1. Introduction

2. Advice - Proportionality

3. Proportionality Assessment – A three step process

4. Simplified Methods

5. Reinsurance Recoverables

6. Annex A: Gross-to-net Techniques
 
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